Lateral hiring conditions in 2021 were exceedingly anomalous. Pre-2021 there were close to zero signing bonuses, top-tier firms were extremely selective and seldom hired in large numbers, most firms were generally leery of hiring anyone more junior than a third-year, special bonuses were, well, special, and re-tooling was relatively rare.
In 2023, we find ourselves in a very different lateral landscape. The slowdown in deals, the numerous lateral hires that have already been made, and the continued uncertainty about the months ahead have put the brakes on hiring at most firms. Competition and pickiness are high, and the need for juniors is low. Some practice areas such as bankruptcy and litigation are more active on a relative basis, and investment funds always seems to be lively (though a tad less so at the moment). Signing bonuses? What signing bonuses?
Given the dramatic changes in hiring, it's important to take with a grain of salt any message you receive suggesting that hiring is booming. Are there some good opportunities out there? Absolutely--depending on your practice area, level of experience, background, and what you're looking for. Some firms may hire opportunistically, if the candidate is outstanding and a great fit. But don't assume that because you're outstanding, a firm will be interested in you right now. Because of this, resist the temptation to paper the market or submit applications to multiple firms that don't have an actual need in your practice area and at your class level. Partner with recruiters who have strong relationships with firms and who can give you an honest and reliable view on what their clients' appetites are for hiring an associate with your profile. In other words, protect yourself and proceed judiciously if you wish to make a lateral move right now.
Will lateral hiring conditions improve eventually? Most definitely. If you decide to wait it out until hiring picks up again, the best thing to do in the meantime is to focus on getting as much good work and experience as you can. That's always going to benefit your career and your future, regardless of what's happening with the lateral market.